Betting Exchange Trading Part 5: Want A Tip? 

Don’t Back Or Lay….Trade!  

 
 

In my experience to date, “Trading” and related strategies are the ONLY way to guarantee long term profitability on the Betting Exchange and the other Betting Exchanges.

Laying horses to lose is no more profitable than backing them. The effect on profits are akin to backing in reverse.

Simply put; The effect of laying is a long winning streak of small wins interspersed with a large loss as oppose to backing which is a long losing streak of small losses interspersed with a large win.

Laying horses is a relatively new type of bet, and therefore has a novelty “excitement” factor that draws a lot of new punters onto the Betting Exchanges. 

Punters can experience “Quick wins” due to the unsurprisingly high ratio of losers to winners in any horse race.

It is not till a failed lay bet is experienced that reality bites.

Indeed many novice punters pots will only be able to sustain a run of 3 failed lays before they are broke.

The idea that there are 16 horses in a race and all you have to do is pick one that has no chance of winning, and watch the profits roll in, is an extremely potent aphrodisiac for punters looking for something new.

The reality of laying horses is that most selections above 4/1 are NOT financially viable as a potential lay. 

And from my own experience I can tell you that horses from 4/1 upwards that look like nags pre-race frequently DO win horse races.

With so many race meets every day of every year the quality of a lot of meets is so poor that there is absolutely NO WAY of accurately sorting out the wheat from the chaff.

It is a lottery, pure gambling, especially through the winter months when the reasons for turning out horses in different scenarios are often muted and many horses are not running to form.

Horses that pundits and tipsters make out are ready for the knackers frequently go on to win races.

Horses after all, are JUST animals.

You can study the form, the conditions, the track, the pundits and tipsters spotlights, the breeding, stall numbers, jockeys, owners, trainers, the list goes on, but I will tell you this from experience.

Any horse that makes it to the stalls can win any race on its day. And any horse that is a dead cert can lose. That is the reality of betting on animals!

Horses do NOT wake up the morning of a race and think “my form states that I am favourite for the 2.30 at Chepstow today so I had better get ready and win it!!”

Yes, you can make some slow progress laying horses, admittedly, and you can lose money quite slowly if that is your bag. There is a chap who does a free lay roundup of likely losers everyday at

http://www.parlaysuk.com

The data is computer generated and he tests a variety of laying systems and analyzes the data very carefully.

However you will never be able to lay the horses on the Betting Exchange at the SP odds posted on the site. 

In fact you will never get a lay price at SP full stop.  

Do not waste money on paid tips on the internet for laying horses.

There are 1 or 2 sites that seem to have credentials for selecting horses to back, but even with the best you will be paying way over the odds with no guarantees and you should always back up any tips with your own research.

If you are thinking of trying the dubious world of paid tipsters please visit the site below before you go any further:

http://www.Racing-Index.com

This excellent website provides a wealth of Betting Exchange sport and racing information and other Betting Exchange resources.

The Racing Index also has a system whereby tipsters who come and go like Gordon Browns cabinet have to “proof” their tips on a daily basis.

The site is independent of the tipsters themselves so punters can see exactly how their proposed tipster is performing. To really get a feel for who knows their game and who is bluffing study the figures over a prolonged period of at least 6 months.

But ultimately, the results vary month by month, and they usually average out to a small profit or loss and you then have to factor in your subscription fee.  

I make no pretentions and take no responsibility for the outcome of my tips. I also make a host of caveats and tell you precisely how you can use the betting tips to your advantage should you wish to have some fun with a pure gambling racing strategy.

When I was starting out punting I found using the current leader of the Naps * competition and Tom Segal's Pricewise tips to be just as efficient at getting a good supply of hopefuls as any of the paid tipsters. * Newspaper and Press Assoc, Society.

As an aside it’s interesting to note that the winner of the Naps competition usually posts around a 30 point profit per season.

The Naps is a competition run by the Racing Post, www.RacingPost.co.uk, where experienced racing journalists for different rags compete against each other to fictional £1 level stakes.

They must provide one daily tip over the course of an entire season.

It can be projected that to £1 bets, the best racing journalists average around £30/40 profit for an entire season. The rest all make less profit, break even or make a loss.

 

What is Dutching - Why Should We Use It?

In a nutshell it relies on backing the most likely 3 or 4 horses to win a race and calculating a set amount of profit that you want to make should any of these horses win, by varying your stakes across the differing odds offered on each horse.

There are free and accurate calculators available on the internet that do all the math for you.

Just as with laying horses on the Betting Exchange, the aim is to look for suitable types of race and really focus on those where you are backing the only horses which have any real chance of winning the race, and the total cost of doing so is not prohibitive.

The last factor to look for in choosing a race to "Dutch" is for the spread of prices being in a certain format or “shape”

The free calculators can be a great pointer as to what to look for.

I particularly like Dutching and have developed my own strategy using Bet Angel Professional Dutching bot

It is unique and i am very excited about its potential.

I got involved with Dutching several years ago as i realized that this method was proving far more profitable than backing or laying single horses, for myself and several of my colleagues over the long term.

Also as the Dutching win ratio is more consistent than backing/laying a single horse to win or lose so reducing the disastrous psychological effects of extended losing runs.

But i also noticed that to be successful it requires a great deal of skill and focus as you have to find the correct race where the layout and spread of the odds across the race are suitable, all major contenders are going to run to form and so on.

You have to watch out for non runners which can mess up proceedings in advance of a race if a favourite pulls out.

I noticed the potential of the excellent Betting Exchange dutching robot provided by Bet Angel professional and so began the development of one of my most important techniques. 

The betting software looks at races individually and tells you automatically if it is going to be a viable dutching opportunity, it does the math for you based on your requested profit level and even allows you to modify the profit levels for an individual horse.

For example when there is a race favourite that you really fancy you can increase the profit from the Dutch should that horse come home first, request a lesser profit for the second favourite and request a scratch on the third favourite.

The tool below is a simple but effective no frills dutching calculator with full instructions and provides a good introduction to Dutching:-

http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tools/DutchingCalculator.asp

Later in this series I will outline a method that you can employ using freely available real time websites and data to assimilate, filter and identify horses to trade.

Then I will show you how to use another free tool from http://www.BetAngel.com to trade far more effectively than you would with the Betting Exchange interface.

The aim will be to show you how to make a profit on the Betting Exchange betting exchange at your first few attempts

 

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