UK All Weather Speed Rating Systems - Part 1 - Problems, Potential and the Search For Value

UK All Weather Speed Rating Systems - Part 1 -

Problems, Potential and the Search For Value

 


The Problem With Speed Pars:

As traders and bettors we must continually strive for new and innovative horse racing and the Betting Exchange systems to keep us ahead of the fierce competition.

The fluidity of the The Betting Exchange ecosystem means that you must never stop your search for new methods and different angles to profit from racing and the betting exchanges.

The learning curve is, and will remain constant into the foreseeable future.

When I first start talking to punters and colleagues about the features of speed pars, I am often met with confused looks or even bemused scowls.

When I start talking about the potential benefits of using speed pars suddenly a lot of interest is shown.

The problem has always been it seems, the amount of time they take to prepare in order to provide any meaningful or more importantly, profitable data.

I had been searching for a method that can be worked in the 10 minutes before a race but my research proved fruitless.

The average punter is simply not willing to spend several hours a day on form study and working complex arithmetic in order to come up with the same horse that all the tipsters identified 12 hours earlier.

The Search For Value:

What we really need as punters are methods that will regularly throw up horses that are "contrary" to the "talking" horses, and this is what speed pars are best at.

By indicating "contrary" selections speed pars can be used to generate profitable longer odds winners as compared to blindly backing favourites.

What I have developed is a simple speed ratings system for use as a field reduction mechanism or even a pure back to win mechanism should you have the stomach for that style of betting.

The simplicity of the system is partly due to the fact that it uses freely available online data. The results have to date been excellent.

Should you make your own speed ratings, or can you rely on others and online resources?

In an ideal world you would all make your own speed ratings, this would give you the edge you need to separate yourself from other punters. But, as with anything that's worthwhile in life, this takes time and commitment and life itself has a tendency to get in the way of such ventures.

Also, we all need quick and convincing evidence that a system is usable and productive.

What you really want to know is - does it make money? As punters this is the crucial evidence you need in advance of committing enormous resource to developing it for your own use.

To get started with speed ratings you can use several free web sites on the Internet. The reason you can now start to develop speed rating systems is because the really hard work of creating them and publishing them has already been done by experts at:

 

  • RacingPost.com
  • AtTheRaces.com

 


However you still need to be aiming for true independence from the crowd.

What happens if the ratings you are using which were designed by someone else simply stop working?

 

  • What are your options for tweaking and modifying ratings if you don't understand how they were created? None.
  • What changes can you make to someone else's system that you don't understand? None.
  • What improvements can you make to a system that you didn't create in the first place? None.

 


If you are a follower of my work you will know that a "contrary" approach to selecting winners is where the "value" bets can be found.

Only here can be found the true path to profitable betting.

Other accurate sources of speed rating information can be found at Timeform Perspective which is the ultimate in analysis of racing data, but is a subscription service aimed at dedicated professionals.

Raceform interactive is also extremely useful for speed ratings, but is again a subscription service.

The fact is that simply betting on the horse with the fastest average speed is just like betting on the favourites in every race - while it produces a lot of winners, it does not produce a profit.

This is because the average speed is not enough!

In the rest of this series I examine -

 

  • History of speed ratings.
  • What makes them so effective for UK All Weather Racing.
  • How to find and use freely available online speed data.
  • The 3 major factors that can be calculated from the freely available speed rating data.
  • The minor factors that should be added into the system to create a profitable speed rated system for UK All Weather Racing.
  • The rules of my profitable All Weather speed system.
  • Strategies for using the results of the speed system and finally pinpointing profitable selections.

 

 

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