1. Average speed
The Racing Post Rating
(RPR) and the Racing Post TopSpeed
rating are complementary pieces of data
measuring the same thing - a horse's
ability relative to the others in the
The TopSpeed rating
follows directly from the race times,
and calculated going allowance using
Racing Post standard times.
These standard times
are based on RPRs (standard = best
achievable, RPR = 100, 9st, good
ground). What the Racing Post doesn't do
is distinguish between the top speeds on
Turf and the top speeds on All Weather
Why is this so
important? Simple. There is absolutely
no point comparing a horses performance
on Turf and its performance on All
It is like trying to
compare a tennis players ability on clay
to his ability on grass. Occasionally
you get players who are brilliant on
both surfaces but it tends to be because
they are just brilliant full stop.
So what we need to do
is to eliminate all the ratings for
Turf, and use only the ratings for All
Try and get as many
ratings as you can from the current
season for each horse. You will find
that horses tend to specialize in one
code or the other. Turf versus All
For some bizarre
reason trainers and owners tend to run
their horses where they think they have
the greatest chance of winning prize
If you find a horse
who is running on All Weather for the
first time, however good it was on Turf
it is very unlikely that it will win
first time out on All Weather.
A second very
beneficial factor to consider is
There are 2 options
for determining consistency.
You can determine
variability between speed ratings for
different races based on the:
speed as calculated for factor 1.
highest speed figure available.
For example you could take each horse's
highest figure from the All Weather top
speeds and subtract the difference from
all available lower figures, add them
together, and divide by the total number
of figures to give a deviation from the
Do this for all the
horses that you are considering
including in your field.
This gives what we
call the "consistency" rating for each
Why are we so bothered
If a horse has one top
speed rating that looks particularly out
of place then it probably is. Check
carefully that the race was not on Turf.
It may be due to
exceptional circumstances, for example
the horse may have been carrying a
weight that was far too high or too low.
Obviously, as already
stated you are ignoring figures taken
The reasoning for this
is that in so many cases the races are
just not run at a true pace on Turf with
slow races ending in final furlong
3. Improvers and
The final important
"major" factor in using speed pars is to
determine whether a horse can be classed
as an improver or a decliner. Does the
horse seem to be improving over its last
series of races, or does it seem to be
on the way down or just plodding along
This is possibly the
most difficult factor to assess from a
purely statistical aspect.
The last 2 races are
far and away the most important. After
that, the data cannot necessarily be
considered part of a trend, particularly
Without going too deep
we can only achieve a very rough guide
but this can provide vital clues in
trying to find a horse that is on the
ascendency or on the decline.
So we have all this
data taken from basic speed pars - the
question now is -
What do we DO with
Simple really. We want
to use it to win money!
I cannot think of any
punter who hasn't been sent spare at
some point trying to figure out the
nuances of form and ultimately where to
put their money.
What you should also
recognize is that in system based
betting it is extremely important that
you achieve a reasonably regular "win
Why is this? Basic
human nature. This is the reason so many
system based betting ventures fail.
Human beings have a major design flaw,
they have emotions, this means:
cannot stick to the plans that they
cannot tolerate long losing streaks.
The solution to overcoming human nature
is to attempt to remove it from the
You create a score for
each of the horses you are considering
for each of the 3 major factors and add
points for each horse based on its score
for each factor.
The solution to
problem two is to use field reduction
and apply a dutching danger horse
necessarily result in higher profits
over a given season, the profits will be
similar to using a standard back to win
The beauty of using
Bet Angel Professional for danger horse
dutching in this way is that your profit
curve will be infinitely more even.
This means that you
will be able to maintain confidence that
the system is working and you are on a
winning curve. When all this is complete
you are looking for a horse whose SP
does not correlate with the speed rating
you have created.
In the rest of this
series I examine:
vital rules that apply to your
profitable All Weather speed system.
minor factors and questions you need
to add into your speed system.
- How to
analyze and use the rating results of
your speed system to pinpoint
profitable value selections.