UK All Weather Speed Rating Systems - Part 3 Three Critical Keys That Unlock Speed

UK All Weather Speed Rating Systems - Part 3

Three Critical Keys That Unlock Speed

 

 

Major Factors

1. Average speed

The Racing Post Rating (RPR) and the Racing Post TopSpeed rating are complementary pieces of data measuring the same thing - a horse's ability relative to the others in the race.

The TopSpeed rating follows directly from the race times, and calculated going allowance using Racing Post standard times.

These standard times are based on RPRs (standard = best achievable, RPR = 100, 9st, good ground). What the Racing Post doesn't do is distinguish between the top speeds on Turf and the top speeds on All Weather courses.

Why is this so important? Simple. There is absolutely no point comparing a horses performance on Turf and its performance on All Weather tracks.

It is like trying to compare a tennis players ability on clay to his ability on grass. Occasionally you get players who are brilliant on both surfaces but it tends to be because they are just brilliant full stop.

So what we need to do is to eliminate all the ratings for Turf, and use only the ratings for All Weather courses.

Try and get as many ratings as you can from the current season for each horse. You will find that horses tend to specialize in one code or the other. Turf versus All Weather.

For some bizarre reason trainers and owners tend to run their horses where they think they have the greatest chance of winning prize money.

If you find a horse who is running on All Weather for the first time, however good it was on Turf it is very unlikely that it will win first time out on All Weather.

2. Consistency

A second very beneficial factor to consider is consistency.

There are 2 options for determining consistency.

You can determine variability between speed ratings for different races based on the:

 

  • Average speed as calculated for factor 1.
  • The highest speed figure available.

 


For example you could take each horse's highest figure from the All Weather top speeds and subtract the difference from all available lower figures, add them together, and divide by the total number of figures to give a deviation from the highest figure.

Do this for all the horses that you are considering including in your field.

This gives what we call the "consistency" rating for each horse.

Why are we so bothered about consistency?

If a horse has one top speed rating that looks particularly out of place then it probably is. Check carefully that the race was not on Turf.

It may be due to exceptional circumstances, for example the horse may have been carrying a weight that was far too high or too low.

Obviously, as already stated you are ignoring figures taken from Turf.

The reasoning for this is that in so many cases the races are just not run at a true pace on Turf with slow races ending in final furlong sprints.

3. Improvers and Decliners

The final important "major" factor in using speed pars is to determine whether a horse can be classed as an improver or a decliner. Does the horse seem to be improving over its last series of races, or does it seem to be on the way down or just plodding along consistently.

This is possibly the most difficult factor to assess from a purely statistical aspect.

The last 2 races are far and away the most important. After that, the data cannot necessarily be considered part of a trend, particularly in handicaps.

Without going too deep we can only achieve a very rough guide but this can provide vital clues in trying to find a horse that is on the ascendency or on the decline.

So we have all this data taken from basic speed pars - the question now is -

What do we DO with the data?

Simple really. We want to use it to win money!

I cannot think of any punter who hasn't been sent spare at some point trying to figure out the nuances of form and ultimately where to put their money.

What you should also recognize is that in system based betting it is extremely important that you achieve a reasonably regular "win rate".

Why is this? Basic human nature. This is the reason so many system based betting ventures fail. Human beings have a major design flaw, they have emotions, this means:

 

  • They cannot stick to the plans that they set themselves.
  • They cannot tolerate long losing streaks.

 


The solution to overcoming human nature is to attempt to remove it from the equation.

You create a score for each of the horses you are considering for each of the 3 major factors and add points for each horse based on its score for each factor.

The solution to problem two is to use field reduction and apply a dutching danger horse methodology.

This doesn't necessarily result in higher profits over a given season, the profits will be similar to using a standard back to win method.

The beauty of using Bet Angel Professional for danger horse dutching in this way is that your profit curve will be infinitely more even.

This means that you will be able to maintain confidence that the system is working and you are on a winning curve. When all this is complete you are looking for a horse whose SP does not correlate with the speed rating you have created.

In the rest of this series I examine:

 

  • The vital rules that apply to your profitable All Weather speed system.
  • The minor factors and questions you need to add into your speed system.
  • How to analyze and use the rating results of your speed system to pinpoint profitable value selections.

 

 

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