UK All Weather Speed Rating Systems - Part 4 - The Six Major System Rules

UK All Weather Speed Rating Systems - Part 4

- The Six Major System Rules

 

Speed Rating System - Rules and Strategies.

What you have produced so far are useful pointers to horses that have the ability to run fast, with reasonable consistency, and are improving.

You have by no means found the winner, a danger horse, nor have you found a horse that can be classed as a value bet.

If you are a follower of my work you will know that we are not simply looking to find as many winners as possible.

Why not? Because the easy way to do this is to blindly back favourites and it is statistically proven that this does not produce a profit.

Remember we talked about the overround?

What you need to find are winners that will produce an overall profit due to their value at starting price, so beating the overround.

To do this you need a different angle from all the tipsters, the pundits, other professionals, mug punters and so on. Because once a horse becomes a "talking" horse it's likely that it's too late to get a decent price.

After producing the initial averages for speed ratings, consistency and improvement, how else should you start looking for your final selection?

When examining speed rating data on All Weather, there is speculation about the effect of the weight, the handicap.

Naturally, weight changes will affect all horses, Turf or All Weather.

But, in most cases the handicap doesn't appear to affect horses on All Weather courses anything like as much as on Turf, particularly in the shorter races under 12 furlongs.

The Speed Rating System Rules:

 

  • Use All Weather races that are less than 12 furlongs.
  • Use races that are as high class as possible.
  • Work out the average speed using only figures from All Weather courses.
  • Work out the consistency rating for each horse.
  • Work out the improver/decliner rating for each horse.
  • Use the related PostData entries to determine minor points.

 


This is a solid basic system for creating profitable speed based ratings for All Weather racing at UK courses.

Its quick and easy to use. I have developed a points system and I am developing a series of spreadsheets which will allow automation of the statistical analysis.

But these rules alone form a great template for creating top 5 speed rating figures across your All Weather racecard.

And the beauty of this approach is that all the information you require is freely available on the RacingPost.com and AtTheRaces.com websites, but the analysis of that data is entirely your own.

Unfortunately, many punters approach their trade in a completely unprofitable manner. Why?

The burning question on so many punters minds is -

How do I find the winner of a horse race?

Finding the winner of a horse race is in fact not particularly difficult.

Any database analysis of UK Racing will show that simply betting on the favourite in every single horse race of any kind will produce approximately 33% win ratio.

In certain races such as Novice Hurdles you could pick the winner in over 46% of the races by lumping equal stakes on the top horse on the The Betting Exchange interface 1 minute before the off.

The reality of actually physically doing this would, unfortunately, be that even betting at The Betting Exchange odds, betting on favorites in this way would produce a level stakes loss.

However you would enjoy watching a lot of winners come home.

It's up to you:

The questions you should be asking are:-

 

  • What do you want to achieve from your racing investment - winners or profit?
  • Are you placing bets for the right reasons - Are you an addict or are you an investor?
  • Are you happy to continue with your racing as an expensive hobby?
  • Do you believe it is possible to make profit from horse racing and are you prepared to invest time and effort in expert strategies?

 


Punters often wonder where and how they can find the mystical winners at prices above 5/1 and up to 30/1.

How do Pricewise and the Naps find those big price horses so regularly?

The answer in many cases is that they incorporate ratings analysis of several different kinds, and in many instances they use speed figures!

The horses may have been out of form, or out of the public eye. The trainer may have been having a bad time.

However the fact remains that in every race, there is very often a fundamentally fast horse, often due to sireage and genetic inheritance that has not been winning recently.

And, on its day, given the right conditions and return to fitness this horse can win the race.

Obviously the big gamble is trying to find exactly when the return to speed will happen and this is where the 3 major factors can be used to bear fruit.

If a horse is fast and reliable and of good class then it will probably have been winning very recently and so will be the favourite "talking" horse.

 

  • Result = No Value.
  • Action = No Bet

 


The secret to the success of speed ratings is that if you are getting long SP's around 10/1 then you only need 1 in 9 speed ratings to show you a winner that nobody else has spotted and you will be in profit.

In the final part of this series i examine:

 

  • Strategies for using the ratings data you have created
  • Making final profitable value selections from your speed system.

 

 

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