Speed Rating System
- Rules and Strategies.
What you have produced
so far are useful pointers to horses
that have the ability to run fast, with
reasonable consistency, and are
You have by no means
found the winner, a danger horse, nor
have you found a horse that can be
classed as a value bet.
If you are a follower
of my work you will know that we are not
simply looking to find as many winners
Why not? Because the
easy way to do this is to blindly back
favourites and it is statistically
proven that this does not produce a
Remember we talked
about the overround?
What you need to find
are winners that will produce an overall
profit due to their value at starting
price, so beating the overround.
To do this you need a
different angle from all the tipsters,
the pundits, other professionals, mug
punters and so on. Because once a horse
becomes a "talking" horse it's likely
that it's too late to get a decent
After producing the
initial averages for speed ratings,
consistency and improvement, how else
should you start looking for your final
When examining speed
rating data on All Weather, there is
speculation about the effect of the
weight, the handicap.
changes will affect all horses, Turf or
But, in most cases the
handicap doesn't appear to affect horses
on All Weather courses anything like as
much as on Turf, particularly in the
shorter races under 12 furlongs.
The Speed Rating
- Use All
Weather races that are less than 12
races that are as high class as
- Work out
the average speed using only figures
from All Weather courses.
- Work out
the consistency rating for each horse.
- Work out
the improver/decliner rating for each
- Use the
related PostData entries to determine
This is a solid basic system for
creating profitable speed based ratings
for All Weather racing at UK courses.
Its quick and easy to
use. I have developed a points system
and I am developing a series of
spreadsheets which will allow automation
of the statistical analysis.
But these rules alone
form a great template for creating top 5
speed rating figures across your All
And the beauty of this
approach is that all the information you
require is freely available on the
RacingPost.com and AtTheRaces.com
websites, but the analysis of that data
is entirely your own.
punters approach their trade in a
completely unprofitable manner. Why?
The burning question
on so many punters minds is -
How do I find the
winner of a horse race?
Finding the winner of
a horse race is in fact not particularly
Any database analysis
of UK Racing will show that simply
betting on the favourite in every single
horse race of any kind will produce
approximately 33% win ratio.
In certain races such
as Novice Hurdles you could pick the
winner in over 46% of the races by
lumping equal stakes on the top horse on
the The Betting Exchange interface 1
minute before the off.
The reality of
actually physically doing this would,
unfortunately, be that even betting at
The Betting Exchange odds, betting on
favorites in this way would produce a
level stakes loss.
However you would
enjoy watching a lot of winners come
It's up to you:
The questions you
should be asking are:-
- What do
you want to achieve from your racing
investment - winners or profit?
- Are you
placing bets for the right reasons -
Are you an addict or are you an
- Are you
happy to continue with your racing as
an expensive hobby?
- Do you
believe it is possible to make profit
from horse racing and are you prepared
to invest time and effort in expert
Punters often wonder where and how they
can find the mystical winners at prices
above 5/1 and up to 30/1.
How do Pricewise and
the Naps find those big price horses so
The answer in many
cases is that they incorporate ratings
analysis of several different kinds, and
in many instances they use speed
The horses may have
been out of form, or out of the public
eye. The trainer may have been having a
However the fact
remains that in every race, there is
very often a fundamentally fast horse,
often due to sireage and genetic
inheritance that has not been winning
And, on its day, given
the right conditions and return to
fitness this horse can win the race.
Obviously the big
gamble is trying to find exactly when
the return to speed will happen and this
is where the 3 major factors can be used
to bear fruit.
If a horse is fast and
reliable and of good class then it will
probably have been winning very recently
and so will be the favourite "talking"
= No Value.
= No Bet
The secret to the success of speed
ratings is that if you are getting long
SP's around 10/1 then you only need 1 in
9 speed ratings to show you a winner
that nobody else has spotted and you
will be in profit.
In the final part of
this series i examine:
for using the ratings data you have
final profitable value selections from
your speed system.