using the Betting Exchange API SOAP technology are able to code their projects in
VB, C, C++, dot net, java, literally anything.
Low level languages such
as these have one great advantage, they work from the client workstation
and they are extremely FAST.
exactly is and what can be achieved with a Betting Exchange
are a few basic features that need to be explained with
respect to the whole arena of Betting Exchange API technology, interfaces,
and sports betting software .
of procedures that could otherwise be performed manually. |
is one of those light bulb moments for so many betting system
those "So what's" that is in reality fantastically important
If the “system” you are working to manually cannot provide success,
then no matter the level of automation you implement, the automated
Betting Exchange Bot will also fail.
simply represent computer automation of systems and procedures that you would have
performed manually via a standard or custom interface using your eyes,
ears, fingers, mouse and keyboard.
the manual system would have failed then by default so will the bot.|
The real truth here is that
there are NO paper based horse racing systems that can work all the time
without human intervention at some point in the procedure, should
certain conditions arise.
i will state with 100% certainty that:
will NEVER be a Betting Exchange Bot which can fully automate a racing system that will provide
any level of profit consistently throughout the horse racing calendar.|
this by NO means represents the end of the automation story. It is in
fact only the beginning.
are two distinct areas of Bot functionality.
first is “Technical Analysis” (trading price movements and
fluctuations in the market)
second is “Form Study” (fundamentals of the horse and the race
general feeling in the bot making industry is that potentially a successful
Betting Exchange bot
would be one that could somehow identify “value” in a horse race or
other sports event.
could "hypothetically" be possible to develop a computer system based on
massive databases of racing form and past results datasets that could generate a
Starting Price (SP) for a given horse in a
given race based on fundamental form data and analysis of past performances.
comparing your predicted SP with that on display in the shops, or on Betting Exchange, or in the press, it would not be a huge leap to develop an
automated system that tracks the horse's SP on the Betting Exchange
race, and places a bet on it should the horses price drift out to what
your dataset analysis had determined as being its correct SP.
represent a “value” bet which over a period of time would result in
profit to level stakes.
main reason that no one has been able to successfully do this is that
the concept of “value” cannot be accurately defined.
is a highly subjective aspect of racing.
support of my assertion comes the following:
2005 Betting Exchange datasets were analyzed:
“drifters” won races compared to “steamers” as one would expect,
but in terms of profiting from the results it was determined that:-
betting to level stakes a bettor would have generated a tangible
profit from betting on drifters of up to 20% over the season.
betting to level stakes a bettor would have generated a tangible
loss if he had bet on steamers over the season.”|
is this data SO important?
this obviously highlights is the unpredictability of horse racing
betting in terms of generating profits.
more importantly it also highlights how betting against the
crowd can have benefits, and also delivers a
genuine feasibility for my proposed bot-able value strategy
for the Betting Exchanges.
where does one find “value”?
I or my computer program sees as value in a horse race, another bettor, or
shop, or computer system which has been setup with a different set
of rules will most likely NOT see the same value.
the “value” can change at any point during the day, pre race, as
value is linked not just with fundamental form, but also incoming news,
news factors include.
single one of these incoming news factors can influence the “value”
that I saw based purely on form and SP.
the main problem developing form-based bots is that they are
totally incapable of responding to
news and events pre-race, other activity in Tattersalls or when
going down to the post.
betting bot cannot analyze and make a deduction from a piece of news blurted out
on racing TV or the insufferable but brilliant Mr McRirick.
a betting bot can do is respond to changes in a horses SP. That is to say its
activity can only be purely mathematical in its analysis.
novice punter will already have discovered that racing results are an
of many many factors with a good dose of luck thrown into the mix.
Pre-race issues that will arise dozens of times per day include:
or indeed all of these, are factors that affect whether a professional
punter in the ring would actually physically go to a pitch and hand over
fully automated value betting computer software system would simply be watching
the SP and bet according the rules you have pre determined.
i hope i have given you a reasonable idea why attempts at full automation of racing systems have so
far ended up in the pile labeled GIGO (Garbage In Garbage Out).
are fully automated horse race betting systems on the market which use
is a staking plan which places bets on favourites in the win or place
market and increases the stakes after each loss in order to achieve a
pre determined profit on each race.
theory is based on the fact that at some point one of your horses will
inevitably win, which is of course almost certain in the short term with
each way betting markets.
fully automated systems are popular with novice punters because, in exactly
the same way as Betting Exchange
Lay Betting Systems, they can give the impression
that they are working for quite some time, especially if working with
each way markets.
problem is that although win frequency is high, when the inevitable
losing run of 5 or 6 races comes it is utterly devastating for your
capital and will wipe
out your entire pot.
cover these losses you would have to remortgage the house and the bet
would not be accepted by any shop or betting exchange anyway.
that time the creators of the system will have already taken their money
off you and are ready for the next novice punter.
the final part of this series i provide a more in depth analysis of how I moved forward
designing, creating and testing the Betting Exchange
Reading => Semi Automated Betting
Systems, Bet Angel Professional, Betting Exchange Bots: Part 2