Betting Exchange Trading Systems. 

Semi Automated Betting Systems with  

Bet Angel Professional API Trading Interface, 

Bookmaking And Dutching Bots. Part 2

 

Programmers using the Betting Exchange API SOAP technology are able to code their projects in VB, C, C++, dot net, java, literally anything. 

Low level languages such as these have one great advantage, they work from the client workstation and they are extremely FAST.

 

"What exactly is and what can be achieved with a Betting Exchange Bot?"

 

There are a few basic features that need to be explained with respect to the whole arena of Betting Exchange API technology, interfaces, bots and sports betting software .

Bots simply enable:

Automation of procedures that could otherwise be performed manually.

So what? 

This is one of those light bulb moments for so many betting system developers.

It is one of those "So what's" that is in reality fantastically important and misunderstood!!

If the “system” you are working to manually cannot provide success, then no matter the level of automation you implement, the automated Betting Exchange Bot will also fail.

Betting Exchange Bots simply represent computer automation of systems and procedures that you would have performed manually via a standard or custom interface using your eyes, ears, fingers, mouse and keyboard.

If the manual system would have failed then by default so will the bot.

The real truth here is that there are NO paper based horse racing systems that can work all the time without human intervention at some point in the procedure, should certain conditions arise.

Therefore i will state with 100% certainty that:

There will NEVER be a Betting Exchange Bot which can fully automate a racing system that will provide any level of profit consistently throughout the horse racing calendar.

However this by NO means represents the end of the automation story. It is in fact only the beginning.

There are two distinct areas of Bot functionality.

  1. The first is “Technical Analysis” (trading price movements and fluctuations in the market).
  1. The second is “Form Study” (fundamentals of the horse and the race itself).

The general feeling in the bot making industry is that potentially a successful Betting Exchange bot would be one that could somehow identify “value” in a horse race or other sports event.

It could "hypothetically" be possible to develop a computer system based on massive databases of racing form and past results datasets that could generate a predicted Starting Price (SP) for a given horse in a given race based on fundamental form data and analysis of past performances.

By comparing your predicted SP with that on display in the shops, or on Betting Exchange, or in the press, it would not be a huge leap to develop an automated system that tracks the horse's SP on the Betting Exchange throughout pre race, and places a bet on it should the horses price drift out to what your dataset analysis had determined as being its correct SP.

This would represent a “value” bet which over a period of time would result in profit to level stakes.

The main reason that no one has been able to successfully do this is that the concept of “value” cannot be accurately defined.

Value is a highly subjective aspect of racing.

In support of my assertion comes the following:

“In 2005 Betting Exchange datasets were analyzed:

Fewer “drifters” won races compared to “steamers” as one would expect, but in terms of profiting from the results it was determined that:-

If betting to level stakes a bettor would have generated a tangible profit from betting on drifters of up to 20% over the season.
If betting to level stakes a bettor would have generated a tangible loss if he had bet on steamers over the season.”

Why is this data SO important? 2 Reasons:-

  1. What this obviously highlights is the unpredictability of horse racing betting in terms of generating profits.
  1. But more importantly it also highlights how betting against the crowd can have benefits, and also delivers a genuine feasibility for my proposed bot-able value strategy for the Betting Exchanges.

But where does one find “value”?

What I or my computer program sees as value in a horse race, another bettor, or shop, or computer system which has been setup with a different set of rules will most likely NOT see the same value.

Similarly the “value” can change at any point during the day, pre race, as value is linked not just with fundamental form, but also incoming news, volatility!

Incoming news factors include.

The going.
The other horses in the race.
The trainer.
The jockey.
The course.
The draw.
New from owners, stable lads, commentators, pundits.
Injuries.
Overweights.
Fitness.

Any single one of these incoming news factors can influence the “value” that I saw based purely on form and SP.

Probably the main problem developing form-based bots is that they are totally incapable of responding to news and events pre-race, other activity in Tattersalls or when going down to the post.

A betting bot cannot analyze and make a deduction from a piece of news blurted out on racing TV or the insufferable but brilliant Mr McRirick.

All a betting bot can do is respond to changes in a horses SP. That is to say its activity can only be purely mathematical in its analysis.

A novice punter will already have discovered that racing results are an intricate mix of many many factors with a good dose of luck thrown into the mix.

Pre-race issues that will arise dozens of times per day include:

Non runners.
Jockey changes.
Injuries.
Commentators and pundits.
Changes of conditions on the track.
Jockeys being overweight.
Other external news and so on.

Any or indeed all of these, are factors that affect whether a professional punter in the ring would actually physically go to a pitch and hand over his money.

A fully automated value betting computer software system would simply be watching the SP and bet according the rules you have pre determined.

So i hope i have given you a reasonable idea why attempts at full automation of racing systems have so far ended up in the pile labeled GIGO (Garbage In Garbage Out).

There are fully automated horse race betting systems on the market which use “Martingale” strategies.

Martingale is a staking plan which places bets on favourites in the win or place market and increases the stakes after each loss in order to achieve a pre determined profit on each race.

The theory is based on the fact that at some point one of your horses will inevitably win, which is of course almost certain in the short term with each way betting markets.

These fully automated systems are popular with novice punters because, in exactly the same way as Betting Exchange Lay Betting Systems, they can give the impression that they are working for quite some time, especially if working with each way markets.

The problem is that although win frequency is high, when the inevitable losing run of 5 or 6 races comes it is utterly devastating for your capital and will wipe out your entire pot.

To cover these losses you would have to remortgage the house and the bet would not be accepted by any shop or betting exchange anyway.

By that time the creators of the system will have already taken their money off you and are ready for the next novice punter.

In the final part of this series i provide a more in depth analysis of how I moved forward designing, creating and testing the Betting Exchange betting systems. 

Continue Reading => Semi Automated Betting Systems, Bet Angel Professional, Betting Exchange Bots: Part 2

 

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