Betting Exchange Handicap Horse Racing System -

How to Find Profitable Long Odds Winners

 


Handicap racing forms more than half of all races on the cards of UK race meets.

For the racing specialist, Handicaps frequently throw up excellent betting opportunities that simply CANNOT be overlooked.

The secret with handicap systems is to concentrate on very recent form, and by this I mean the latest 2 or 3 races.

An ideal handicapping system will allow you to reduce the field for handicap races and only include the potential winners in a profitable danger horse Dutch.

Fitness:

Fitness is one of the great unpredictable's in handicap racing. This is often by design.

Trainers and owners can often attempt to blinker the handicappers to a horses true potential by running him "unfit" in several handicaps to get the weight allocation as low as possible.

Then by intensive training on the gallops they can get him right up to peak fitness while still carrying a low weight.

At this point they then enter him in a series of big prize handicaps.

Guess where the owner and trainers money will be?

As you can see this correlates precisely with my earlier assertion regarding very recent form study for handicap horses.

A horse will so often come out of nowhere to suddenly be placed. Be ready for the next race. He will have a high percentage chance of winning.

Intensive training on the gallops is of course perfectly legal, and may well be spotted by more vigilant press and naps experts.

Finding horses such as this can be a great source of long odds winners.

The trainers will obviously talk about natural fluctuations in form that happen at different times of year and this is of course also true.

With any type of racing, form will fluctuate, horses CANNOT be maintained at full fitness throughout an entire season, usually they peak for around a month, then deteriorate and are rested, then they begin training again.

If you follow key horses and can spot these cycles then you can use them and include these horses in your field.

Form:

As already mentioned what we are looking for to include a horse in our field is:-

Solid form in very recent races.

A similar grade and class of race.

Not yet been penalised by the handicappers with massive weight increases.

As outlined in the fitness section there is a cyclical pattern to the form of handicap horses.

This is due in part to the nature of racing and horses themselves, but also due to the trainers desire to beat the handicapper.

As already mentioned with betting on handicaps, the winner can so often simply materialize out of nowhere with no recent form and no recent runs.

This confirms my theory of cyclical form. Although this is challenging for the punters there are signs that point to these horses in advance.

Usually a drop in weights, or training on the gallops results in a gradual increase in form and a climb up the race placings, but sometimes, these winners simply come out of nowhere especially in lower grade racing.

Signs and Signals - Steamers in Handicaps.

Without being at the racecourse we can still identify these horses via The Betting Exchanges and the shops on race day.

You will see long odds shortening very rapidly in the 15 minutes pre race.

News is very often released about fitness and training only as the horses come into Tattersalls.

The professionals will then pick up on the news and spot the potential change in form.

Note this horse in your log and include it in the field for the current race.

If it doesn't win this particular race it will very likely be placed and certainly one to watch for its next outing.

Another pre race clue you may pick up is the booking of a winning "hot" jockey for a previously unrecognised horse.

The Competition.

Weight based handicapping is something that is related to a relatively long history of form, including the worst and the best of a horses form.

Crucially, we can use this fact to our advantage.

A horses very recent form may not reflect its long term handicap weight and so we can use this data to exclude a horse from, or include a horse in, our field.

It can be time consuming to work through all these rules, check all the weights and recent form for large fields where there are so many runners, so again I recommend working with smaller fields of less than 10/12 runners to increase efficiency.

In the final part of this series on handicaps I examine 4 more critical aspects of form, and finally outline a quick and simple but extremely effective handicapping system.

 

Contact    Trading Articles     FREE Daily Racing Tips

 

 

For Your FREE Trial of BetAngel Professional Click Here

 

All Rights Reserved: Betting-Exchange-Trading.com: 2012

 

Links           Disclaimer