Betting Exchange Field Reduction System 

for Instant Handicapping

 


The handicapping system that I outline is made of seven key elements, in Part 2 of this series i looked at Fitness, Form and the Competition, and in this the final part of the series I discuss the Distance, the Going, the effect of "Hangers" and the Size of the field.

I finish with a quick and simple outline of the system "Quick Field Reduction For Instant Handicapping"

Distance:

Trainers can so often use distance to their advantage, by running horses at their "wrong distance" they can get a marked reduction in the weights allocated for a horse, and then return the horse on good ground at its perfect distance.

Again guess where the clever money will be.

Going:

Trainers will not be able to predict the going for a given course in advance of entering a horse for a race, but nevertheless, poor performances due to unsuitable ground will result in weights falling for any such horse.

When the conditions improve and the horse is back on its favourite ground expect a superior performance due to the reduced weight.

All these factors provide useful pointers for the specialist but what we really need is a quick and easy system in order to get started and find viable horses for our field to use in the Handicapped Dutchman.

Hanging horses:

Incidentally, not as bad as it sounds.

In handicaps many horses can "hang" at the start, this means they get off slowly and get stuck right at the back and can't get out for a good part of the race.

If, however, this horse manages to get out of its predicament and challenge for the lead at any point during the race, or even dispute for a place, then it should be logged as a field inclusion for the next race.

Indeed some professionals make a generous profit following this system.

Longer handicaps, and particularly at certain courses, are known to cause enormous numbers of hangers which leaves horses which could have been contenders totally out of the running for the entire race.

To recover from this situation and challenge or even win the race is an outstanding achievement often missed by the press and novice punters.

Size of Field:

Let's examine closely the Handicap race data:

Number of Runners in the field/ Winning Favourites:-

* 2 to 5 Runners, 1435 races, 41% winning favourites

* 6 to 7 Runners, 3762 races, 34% winning favourites

* 8 to 9 Runners, 5674 races, 29% winning favourites

* 10 to 11 Runners, 6115 races, 23% winning favourites

* 12 to 13 Runners, 6357 races, 23% winning favourites

* 14 to 15 Runners, 4222 races, 23% winning favourites

* 16+ Runners, 6652 races, 19% winning favourites

As I say, concentrate on fields of less than 12 runners. I know there are lot of races with more runners than this, but we have to draw a line.

You can see the significant drop off in performance after 12 runners.

Handicaps above 12 runners are just not viable; leave them to the fun punters.

If the mugs want to lose their money so easily on Saturdays and Sundays then so be it, and while the bookies are kept in healthy profit by the fun punters, they wont be so concerned about losing money to professionals.

There is an ecosystem there and everyone plays a part.

Quick Field Reduction For Instant Handicapping:

For races with 10 - 12 runners:

Using the Racing Post weight tables, take the 6 top weighted horses in the race.

From your Betting Exchange tables pre race take the top 5 horses in the betting. You will find that approximately 3 horses, sometimes more, sometimes less, will be in both tables.

These horses should be included in your initial field.

For races with 8 - 10 runners:

Take the top 5 horses in the weights and the top 4 horses in the betting. Cross reference and include.

For races of 6 - 8 runners:

Take the top 4 horse in the weights and cross reference with the top 3 horses in the betting.

Deeper Analysis:

Now look very carefully at the very recent form of the horses that you have identified.

* Look for evidence of the cyclical form that I have discussed in the section on Form.

* Look for a very recent pattern of placing in races and also improvement.

* Look for evidence of attempts to reduce the weights by unsuitable course or distance performances.

* Look very specifically at horses if they have not been run in the current year, and assess whether their weight and place in the betting is based on form from several months ago.

The horse could be running "green" and have trained on the gallops, look for a sharp fall in the SP close to the race.

You should be able to identify 2 or 3 horses with a real chance of winning the race and these MUST be included in the field as your "profit" horses.

If you have 2 or 3 horses which could also spoil the party, "danger horses", include these in your Dutching field, but only to cover the wager placed on the winning horses.

i.e. a break even/danger horse bet.

So many handicaps are run at distances over a mile and over jumps so for the adventurous these are good horses to use inplay strategies and automation rules to cover liability horses.

The beauty of handicaps is that the selection of odds at longer prices can lead to excellent Dutching opportunities developing, with up to half the field being covered for a very reasonable price.

The main problem in assessing handicaps is that they require a good deal more pre race analysis and expertise, and so can be more time consuming in terms of pre race effort and form analysis to identify possible winners.

The rewards come from the higher odds available which can lead, with determination and dedication of course, to excellent and lucrative profit margins.

 

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