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"Value" Betting Tips

 

"Value" Back To Win Horse Racing Tips.

When people find out about my business, almost without variation they say, "go on then give us a tip."

I always try to explain that this isn't my preferred style of work, and in fact i am not a gambler as such at all, but the taunts invariably continue, "well yeah but which horse is gonna win such and such a race".

Finally i usually crack and give them "yes i'll give you a tip... DON'T bet on horses!!!"

Anyway, I thought what the hell

A very important part of my job is to spot steamers or drifters, and as these are usually in the top three finishers, it goes without saying that the horse i am trading more often than not goes on to win. 

So i will try and spot 2 a day that i feel will represent "Value" bets at the time they are being loaded. 

This will form the basis of my tips and if it brings more people to my site to find out about the real way to profit from horse racing and the Betting Exchange then it can only be to our mutual benefit.

I will try and provide this by start of racing. 

If on any given day there are no horses which meet my criteria then there will be no tips. 

It does NOT matter if you miss a days racing. The quality of the tips is by far the most important aspect of any pure back to win strategy.

My aim will be to achieve 10% on turnover (Turnover on back to win obviously being infinitely lower than turnover on trading. There is no recycling) *e1

i.e. If you place bets to 100 then you should hope for a return of 110. Naturally this will vary from month to month. This should even out over the course of 12 months.

Tipping is a risky business and i will NOT be responsible for any failure of these tips. 

I will NOT be backing them myself as explained on my site i use Trading, Dutching and Bookmaking software and strategies in my own work.

If you choose to follow these tips you need to follow a series of caveats before "blindly" backing. 

I do NOT have time to update continually pre-race and these caveats are as important as the tips themselves. 

Failure to respect the caveats will likely result in loss of the 10% on turnover. i.e your strategy WILL fail. 

This is also the reason that all your previous tipsters will have failed to provide you with any profit.

You need to check the following using racing post and SIS if available. You also need to watch the action on the Betting Exchange.

 

"Value" Back To Win Professional System. Caveats

  1. Check the going 1 hour pre-race. Check that the going is suitable for the horse. If it is OPPOSITE to the preferred going of the races that the horse has previously won, do NOT place the bet.
  2. In the twenty minutes up to the race check for chronic "drifting" of the horse on the Betting Exchange. By chronic drifting i mean movement of over 80%. This could signify that professionals in the ring have seen something seriously wrong with the horse meaning that although it represents a great value bet it probably hasn't got a realistic chance of winning. If you spot this in the run up to the race try and find out why this is the case via racing post live update, SIS or the Betting Exchange.
  3. Check there is no last minute change of jockey, check the stall position is not too un-favorable for the course in question.

 

If everything seems in order place the bet around 10 minutes before the off. These tips will often start steaming in in the last 10 minutes so you want to get the longest odds possible i.e. we are NOT waiting for the trading action here.

They may drift in the last 10 minutes. Drifting of around 20% in the last 10 minutes does NOT normally have an effect on the outcome of the race, it is usually pure trading action. i.e you will know before the last 10 minutes what the going is like, what mood the horse is in, whether there has been a change of jockey, the stall position etc etc.

 

"the Betting Exchange dataset analysis showed that contrary to public opinion betting to level stakes on "drifters" of up to 20% would have provided a significant profit over the year. 

Conversely betting to level stakes on "steamers" and placing the wager immediately pre race would have resulted in a significant loss.

 

Obviously if you are a trader then these ARE going to be good horses to trade as per the Betting-Exchange-Trading brief. 

It is likely that as they are "value" bets they will be identified as steamers or drifters.

 

 

 

 

As I have previously stated my experience as a pure gambler was an overall loss not because of a failure of selection, but due to the inability to stick to the rules. 

I enjoyed the thrill of a pure punt and could not resist fun punts when my profits were up.

This small level of distraction lead to me being unable to maintain the 10% profit above turnover.

All punters need to decide whether they want to bet for fun or whether they want to bet for profit. 

If you decide on the latter it is absolutely vital that you stick to the rules with utter conviction.

Starting Pot And Staking - Basic Plan

 
Start with a small pot say 500 and bet a small sum on each horse say 10.
The best way to stake is to bet a percentage of the overall pot on each horse. i.e. 10/500 = 2%
Lets say you decide to bet on 30 horses in month one and you achieve your 10% on turnover then by the beginning of month two your pot will be 530.
So now you bet 2% of 530 on each horse which is 10.60. You bet on lets say 40 horses in month two and achieve your 10% meaning that at the beginning of month three your overall pot is 572.4.
This allows for exponential growth and also enables you to grow in confidence and refine your system and faith in the tips. This is also the basis of compound interest.... ring any bells?
If you want to stay in profit and build up a pot big enough to reach for the stars, then you have to apply all the rigorous rules above and keep up your form study and NEVER place a fun punt. 
I estimate that starting with a 500 pot using the above staking plan it is possible you could reach 100,000 in around 5 years.

Let me know if any of you achieve this, i will let you buy me a pint.

If you want to get to your goal quicker and have more fun which is what i did (and failed), i used to take the profit from my system, and place it on one of Tom Segals Pricewise horses when he was on really hot form particularly in June and July, and subject to all my usual caveats.

To see horses coming at 10's and 15's when you have 50 or a hundred on them is awesome, highly additive and of course a highly dangerous gambling strategy which is why like 99% of pure punters using bet to win with traditional bookmakers i eventually failed.

      

 

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